Emerging Markets and Cross Assets Special Report, September 2018
04 / The brewing EM Crisis is a handiwork of the US Dollar; it will get worse, before it gets any better:
Emerging Market economies are in serious trouble. Increased US borrowing, which is helping power the US economy and its stock market for now, is hurting many other countries' currencies. Current EM problems can indeed merge into a much larger global debt crisis, just like the subprime crisis became a global financial crisis. As the US Dollar continues to strengthen, as we believe it would, then there are valid reasons to be concerned.
As late as February this year, the EM sector was.....
09/ Flight to Safety is accelerating:
Since May, the rise in US Treasury yields has stalled. This is rather surprising given strong US GDP growth, a tight labour market, a Fed, which seems committed to several more rate hikes, and further increases in the supply of US Treasury Bonds. Consolidation or Distribution? In this article, we consider why US Treasury yields may getting ready.