Themes:

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04 / Executive Summary

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06/ Mapping the Markets

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12 / The US Dollar has likely bottomed, as the EUR falters and as capital inflows to the US rise on favorable fiscal and monetary development

 

17/ Timing and Tactical Insight - The Dollar is Oversold, what kind of counter-trend/reversal can we expect

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24 / The Fed will be the primary determinant of equity markets in 2018, as The Donald choses Main Street over Wall Street; the Fed will stay its tightening regime, or worse

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26/ Timing and Tactical Insight - An unconvincing bounce on many equity markets may lead to further downside retests into end Q1 / early Q2

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32 / Changes in Money Velocity are rising, and that is pushing Core CPI higher; rising interest rates are in turn pushing up changes in MV, and rising CPI pressure rates higher

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34/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Inflation anticipations may subside until end Q1, yet should rise again in Q2

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40 / The long-term price action in the grains sector is about to form a major bottom in Q2 2018

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42/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Agriculture Commodities are typically late cycle reflationary trades; Grains especially have started to react

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52/Splicing the markets - Investment Grade Bonds are stuck between a rock and a hard place