August 2019 

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Issue #32, 15th August 2019

Themes:

1/ The market panics over yiel curve inversion, rush headlong into defensive assets: this strategy is in its last inning

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2/ The S&P500 has entered its corrective phase and the yields are pursuing their decline into a terminal phase: when, and where will this end?

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3/ The US Dollar has likely peaked for now, and should fall until September but after that the Dollar may rise with Core CPI and yields until Q1 2020

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4/ Oil prices are still in the bottoming process for this cycle - we still see Brent oil price rising to at least $90 by Q1 2020

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Splicing the markets - Credit may have topped out already, yet could see a good bounce during Q4