August 2019 

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Issue #32, 15th August 2019

Themes:

 

1/ The market panics over yiel curve inversion, rush headlong into defensive assets: this strategy is in its last inning

2/ The S&P500 has entered its corrective phase and the yields are pursuing their decline into a terminal phase: when, and where will this end?

3The US Dollar has likely peaked for now, and should fall until September but after that the Dollar may rise with Core CPI and yields until Q1 2020

4Oil prices are still in the bottoming process for this cycle - we still see Brent oil price rising to at least $90 by Q1 2020

Splicing the markets - Credit may have topped out already, yet could see a good bounce during Q4