Previous Issues

THE CAPITAL OBSERVER

March 2018 -   published on March 8th 2018

Contents

24 / The Fed will be the primary determinant of equity markets in 2018, as The Donald choses Main Street over Wall Street; the Fed will stay its tightening regime, or worse

04 / Executive Summary

06 / Mapping the markets

32 /  Changes in Money Velocity are rising, and that is pushing Core CPI higher; rising interest rates are in turn pushing up changes in MV, and rising CPI pressure rates higher

26 / Timing and Tactical Insight 

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An unconvincing bounce on many equity markets may lead to further downside retests into end Q1 / early Q2

17/ Timing and Tactical Insight

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The Dollar is Oversold, what kind of counter-trend/reversal can we expect

12/  The US Dollar has likely bottomed, as the EUR falters and as capital inflows to the US rise on favorable fiscal and monetary developments

“The external value of the US Dollar has become a barometer of the perception of the late cycle investment risk in America”

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C Potts, Head of Economics, KeplerChevreux

34 / Timing and Tactical Insight

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Inflation anticipations may subside until end Q1, yet should rise again in Q2

40 / The long-term price action in the grains sector is about to form a major bottom in Q2 2018

42 / Timing and Tactical Insight

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Agriculture Commodities are typically late cycle reflationary trades; Grains especially have started to react

52 / Splicing the markets - Investment Grade Bonds are stuck between a rock and a hard place