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June 2021

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    August 2018 - Available

    Monthly Issues

    Contents.png

    Issue #20, 7th August 2018

    Download Full Document

    Themes:

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    04/ Executive Summary

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    06/ Mapping the Markets

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    12/  No, it’s not different this time – when liquidity flows recede, risk assets get into trouble; when liquidity flows rise, risk assets perk-up and rise along

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    15/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Weighting up the building blocks of a defensive strategy

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    23/ What drive equity total returns? (Hint: Earnings Per Share is not one of them; EPS does not even come close) 

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    28/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Rather than a shift towards Value, we believe that the recent weakness in the Nasdaq is a Defensive warning

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    35 / The US Dollar, trade spats, China: it may not end well short-term for commodities, but there should be a firm relief at some point in September 2018

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    39/ Timing and Tactical Insight - The current sell-off in commodities may find some support towards September, yet overall, commodities probably remain under pressure into H1 next year at least

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    46/Why does the US yield curve continue to flatten? Taking the cue from Global Quantitative Tightening, and the collapsing US bond term premium​

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    49/ Timing and Tactical Insight - More Flattening to come on the US yield curve, possibly inversion by year-end

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    57/ Splicing the markets - Is the US Dollar risk-on or risk-off?