August 2018 - Available

Monthly Issues

Issue #20, 7th August 2018

Themes:

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04/ Executive Summary

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06/ Mapping the Markets

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12/  No, it’s not different this time – when liquidity flows recede, risk assets get into trouble; when liquidity flows rise, risk assets perk-up and rise along

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15/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Weighting up the building blocks of a defensive strategy

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23/ What drive equity total returns? (Hint: Earnings Per Share is not one of them; EPS does not even come close) 

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28/ Timing and Tactical Insight - Rather than a shift towards Value, we believe that the recent weakness in the Nasdaq is a Defensive warning

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35 / The US Dollar, trade spats, China: it may not end well short-term for commodities, but there should be a firm relief at some point in September 2018

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39/ Timing and Tactical Insight - The current sell-off in commodities may find some support towards September, yet overall, commodities probably remain under pressure into H1 next year at least

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46/Why does the US yield curve continue to flatten? Taking the cue from Global Quantitative Tightening, and the collapsing US bond term premium​

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49/ Timing and Tactical Insight - More Flattening to come on the US yield curve, possibly inversion by year-end

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57/ Splicing the markets - Is the US Dollar risk-on or risk-off?