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March 2017  -   published on 22nd March 2017


“ In contrast to previous waves of political risk – which were often concentrated in less developed, lower-income countries and which subsided with the return of economic growth – Vox Populi risk is manifesting itself in middle-income emerging market and industrialized countries which are deeply integrated into the global economy and financial system and where growth is recovering after the recent crisis. Vox Populi risk is therefore becoming less localized and more potentially systemic. The new Vox Populi risk is being fuelled by growing perceptions of income inequality and anxiety about globalization, particularly among middle classes. In developed markets, this has resulted largely in increased appetite for alternative political parties, which have seen an unprecedented spike in support. This has sapped political capital from governments, prompted fragile multi-party governing coalitions and often surprised markets by producing unexpected election outcomes.”


Tina Fordham, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citi.

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