“ … the index probably continues higher into early, perhaps Spring next year … our I Impulsive targets to the upside indicate that the index could reach into the 3’150s over the next few quarters. (September 2019, The Capital Observer)

"... Therefore, the Fed's balance sheet will likely expand until March 2020. But that is when we at The Capital Observer expect the equity markets to have a serious sell-off, beginning early March, when it becomes apparent that this “Not QE” stimulus will not be extend...

. It looks like the expected "recession" is over before it even started: monetary, fiscal stimuli to push economic recovery into Q2 2020, at least

. Timing and Tactical Insight - Equities should continue to climb a wall of worry

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Macro-economic perspective

"The market panic over yield curve inversion, rush head long into defensive assets: this strategy is in its last innings" ( original article from the August 2019 issue of The Capital Observer, published 15th August 2019)

Cyclical and technical...

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04 / The brewing EM Crisis is a handiwork of the US Dollar; it will get worse, before it gets any better: 

Emerging Market economies are in serious trouble. Increased US borrowing, which is helping power the US economy and its stock market for now, is hurting...

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At The Capital Observer, we look at the liquidity being issued or being absorbed back by global central banks, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury (liquidity flows) and model the manner those real money balances impact asset prices.
The grand-daddy of systemic liqu...

p 03 - 05 Gold set for one more rally to a new high before summer, but will likely come under extreme pressure later in the year in Q3 when the US Dollar takes off

p 06 - 09 Timing and Tactical Insight - Gold should break-out to the upside, before it retraces down on U...

EURUSD has broken down and will head even lower over the next two to three months, though it will probably experience a small counter-trend reversal first, according to The Capital Observer, the research service provided jointly by Diapason Currencies & Commodities UK...