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THE CAPITAL OBSERVER
Equity Indexes Articles 2017
February 2017 (published on the 21st February)
While equity markets consolidate, Big Growth should outperform (p7-10)
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Evaluation:
While the 4 to 7% correction we expected on the S&P500 Index ended up closer to 3%, the sector focus was very correct, pinpointing Commodity sectors as the one that should be be impacted the most and picking out Big Technology (e.g. the FANGs), which may prove particularly strong (and did).
Mai 2017 (published on the 26th May)
Heavy Rotation taking place suggests that the reflation trade is still pausing and better risk reward levels are still to be found at a later time (p10-19)
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Evaluation:
Strong sector and factor rotation article, suggesting some consolidation on equities into late June (was mild in the US, strong in Europe), but especially confirming that Cyclicals and Financials could see further retests to the downside into late June and early Summer. In summary, it was still too early yet to re-enter reflation trades.
November 2017 (published on the 1st November 2017)
Strong markets with a rotational bias should continue towards H1 2018, yet short term risk/reward still looks extended (p46-47)
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Evaluation:
A short term market positioning call, where we expected equity markets to correct slightly into mid November. Longer term, as we had done over the last few months and quarters, we reiterated our positive bias on equity markets towards Spring 2018 (the verdict is still out).