THE CAPITAL OBSERVER

FOREX Articles 2017 

February 2017 (published on the 21st February)

The Dollar at crossroads, as it attempts a further leg up (p14-16)

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Longer term we expected that the USD could be approaching an important top vs the Euro and the Yen, that it could materialize over the next month as a last move up (down for EUR/USD) comes to an end between end February and mid March (it eventually failed to make new highs, lows for the EUR/USD). Vs commodity currencies, the Dollar follows an opposite dynamic: it should correct up from end February into mid Q2 2017 (which was effectively the case).

April 2017 (published on the 28th April)

One last focus on the French Election, … hopefully (44-45)

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The Euro and European Markets (on a relative basis) are anticipating a Macron victory. Yet, they may pause a bit until the 7th of May as investors await the results of the 2nd round of the Election. Following that, if consensus and the polls are correct, they should accelerate up again into June. Comment: the outperformance on European markets was short lived (until mid May) as correlation reversed back to normal (European markets vs the S&P500, reversed back to a negative correlation vs the EUR/USD exchange rate). That said, our forecast on EUR/USD was strong, forecasting levels between 1.14 to 1.17 over the next 3 to 6 months and 1.15 to 1.22 over the next 6 to 12 months (at the time EUR/USD was at 1.09).

July 2017 (published on the 28th July 2017)

The trend is now heading upwards on GBP/USD, Buy the Dips (p44-45)

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We then expected that the uptrend, which started earlier in 2017 on GBP/USD, seemed quite robust and warned that we would expect it to continue towards 2018. In the meantime, some retracement could materialize into August. We believed this potential pull-back would represent a ‘Buy the Dips’ opportunity. All very correct. As a by-side forecast, we even projected strong relative under-performance for the FTSE vs the MSCI World on a hedged currency basis.