The Capital Observer is a unique and forward looking monthly multi asset research service.
Our approach aims to understand the current and forward looking macro-economic environment (using macro and liquidity flow models), and to calibrate/forecast actionable market trends within this cross-asset environment by means of a seasoned trend monitoring methodology focused on trend direction, market timing and the calculation of price targets.
The Capital Observer is multi asset: Market and Sector Indices globally, Commodities, Bonds Indices and interest rates, Foreign Exchange as well as related ETFs. The investment horizons, which are actively considered offer a perspective ranging from several weeks to several quarters.
The Capital Observer’s offering mainly comprises of a monthly publication where 4 to 5 market themes are developed each month using both approaches (Macro-Economic and Trend/Cycles analysis) and a global asset allocation review is presented. Subscribers can then elect to complement this written content with either a monthly Q&A conference call or with an access the “Decider” on-line platform focused on market timing and trend analysis of global markets (http://www.mjtsa.com, web-based, live and continuously updated 24/7).
The Capital Observer is dedicated to asset managers, pension funds, treasurers, banks and family offices who would need additional strategic support to take decisions regarding their global asset exposures and their price movements as well as understanding and anticipating the macro fundamentals behind their evolution.
Here are Two Recent Examples (extracted from The Capital Observer September 2019 issue)
1) In depth macro analysis supported by macro and liquidity flow models:
“It looks like the expected "recession" is over before it even started: monetary, fiscal stimuli to push economic recovery into Q2 2020, at least:
… The central banks have gone beyond increasing global money supply (M2 and Monetary Base) – the major central banks are also easing monetary policy, and have been on the race to the bottom in lowering policy rates ... With the double-barrelled approach of increasing systemic monetary liquidity, and declining costs of funds, global risk assets should catch massive bids before long. Equity prices should rise smartly, and bond yields should soar. US risks assets are especially receptive to monetary inflows from the G5 and Federal Reserve Bank itself … “
2) Technical Analysis focusing on cross-asset rotation and market timing
“Equities should continue to climb a wall of worry
Given the bullishness we express above, and the rebound on yields we expect in other articles of this issue of The Capital Observer, we believe it is worth considering the long term perspectives for the Equity to Bond ratios. Indeed, these have been coming down quite strongly since markets sold-off late last year. On this graph (below) comparing the S&P 500 3M Futures with the 30Y US Treasury Bond Futures, we can note that although the ratio was very Overbought last year, a new uptrend sequence seems to be developing on both oscillator series (lower and upper rectangles). It could lead the ratio towards new highs in H2 2020. The corrective period since late 2018 seems almost finished and the inflection point to reverse back to the upside may be quite near.”
3M Standard & Poors Fut. (Dec) / Treasury Bonds 30 Years Future (Dec)
Bi-Monthly graph or the perspectives over the next 1 to 2 years